July 2021 – SE metrics (Software Engineering)

Towards a brighter tomorrow…

https://www.amazon.com/Enlightenment-Now-Steven-Pinker-audiobook/dp/B075F8M2MC/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2AEV0AL40X4JI&dchild=1&keywords=enlightenment+now&qid=1625822982&sprefix=Enlight%2Caps%2C245&sr=8-1

I’ve read an article the other day about the fact that we, as human beings, will be able to extend our lives only so much. I don’t remember the exact source, could be CNN or something like that, but the content was about the fact that we will never be able to stop aging or even death.

I also looked at one of the modern positive thinker – Steven Pinker – and his book “Enlightenment Now”. The book is similar, in its tone, to the work of the late Hans Rosling, providing a positive view of the development of humanity. I like this positive way of thinking, but, at the same time, I wonder about the potential new threats.

For example, new software technology requires more supervision. We need to be able to understand the risks with connectivity, e.g. cyber security, as well as be prepared for when the software stops working. And it will stop working at some point of time. The technology that we used in the 1990s is no longer functional. Well, yes we do have cars who are kept alive by the enthusiasts, but all the 1990s computers are in museums. Many kids do not even recognize that technology.

So, is the progress something that is always good? I would say that it is good in 80%. The remaining 10% is neutral and then 10% is negative. The negative 10% is the price we pay for the new things. New cars are electrical, but we need more energy, or energy which is stored in a different way. No more liquid energy, relatively easy to store, but the new, fast electron energy, which is volatile. It is fast, so we can quickly transfer it from a desert solar farm, but we cannot really store it. At least not as much as we need to power the entire society.

Nevertheless, I strongly recommend Pinker’s book about the progress of humanity. I believe that we are living in a progressive and cool world. In a better world compared to our ancestors and I believe that our kids will live in an even better world.

My personal take-away from this books is to be a better teacher, mentor and advisor. Make sure that my students enjoy the courses that I give and that these courses are of value to them, and to the society. I hope that my course in embedded software development will evolve and prepare the students to write better software for cars, telecom networks, water pumps, wind turbines and health equipment.

What will the future bring ….

https://www.amazon.se/Brief-Answers-Big-Questions-Stephen/dp/1473695996/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=Hawking&qid=1625726909&sr=8-1

As my summer goes on, I’ve decided to take a look at the book of one of my favorite authors and scientists – Prof. Stephen Hawking. I’ve loved his books when I was younger and I like the way he could bring difficult theories to the masses, like his famous “gray holes” as opposed to the black ones.

This book allowed me to reflect on some of the most common questions that people ask, even to me. Like whether AI will take over or whether we should even invest in AI. Since I’m not a physicist, I cannot answer most of the questions, but I think the AI question is something that I can even attempt.

So, will AI take over? Is GPT-3 something to worry about? Will we be out of work as programmers? Well, not really. I think that we live in a world that is very diverse and that we need human judgement to make sure that we can live on. Take the recent cyber attack on Kaseya, which is a US-based company with thousands of clients. The attack affected a minority of their clients, some 40 or so (if I remember the article correctly). However, it make the entire COOP chain in Sweden stranded. Food was given away for free as there was no way to take payments. Other grocery shops bought the grocery stock from the affected chain, to make sure people have enough food. So, what would AI do?

Let’s think statistically for a moment. 40 customers, out of ca. 40,000, is about 0.1 percent. So, ignoring this event would just make 99.9% accuracy for AI. Is this good? Statistically, this is great! Almost perfect. For AI, therefore, this would be like a great way of optimizing. Not paying ransom, make sure that 0.1% is taken as a negligible error somewhere.

Now, let’s think about the social value. Without knowing the rest of the customers affected, or even the ones that were not affected, I could say that the value of having food on your table trumps many other kinds of value. Well, maybe not your health, but definitely something like a car or a computer game. So, the societal impact of that is large. We could model that in the AI, but there is programmatic problem. How to calculate value of diverse things – a car or food. There is the monetary value, of course, but it’s not constant in time. For someone who is hungry for days, the value of a sandwich is infinitely larger than the value of the same sandwich for someone who has just eaten a delicious stake. Another problem is that the value is dependent on the location (is there another grocery shop close by?), your stock (which is individual and hard to find for AI), or even the ability to use another system of payment (can I just get my groceries and pay later?)

This example shows an inherent problem in finding the right data to use for AI. I believe that this is a problem that will not really be solved. And if it cannot be solved, I think I would like to pay a few cents extra to have a human in the loop. I would liked to know that there is an option, in the event if a hacker attack, to talk to a person who understands my needs and can help me. Give me food without paying, knowing where I live and that I will pay later.

Until there are models which understand us, humans, we need to be able to stick to having humans in the loop. Given that there are ca. 6 billion people in the world, potentially different, with conflicting needs, I do not things AI will be able to help us in critical parts of the society.

Thinking machines – summer reading

Tänkande maskiner: Den artificiella intelligensens genombrott: Häggström, Olle, Pettersson, Rasmus: Amazon.se: Books

Summer is around the corner, in some places it has actually arrived. This usually makes for relaxation and time for reflection.

I would like to recommend a book from fellow professors. The book is about the way in which thinking machines are considered today and about the potentials of GAI, General AI. The book is written in a popular science way, but the examples and the research behind this is solid. The authors discuss both the technology, but also the society – legislative aspects of AI and understanding of what it means to be thinking in general, and in some specific cases tool.

Have a great summer and stay tuned for new posts after the summer.